# Hedge any market
Source: https://docs.polystr.at/features/hedge

We optimize your entry by hedging across outcomes.

You choose the outcomes, set the budget, and Polystrat handles the math, shows your upside, and executes everything in one click.

| Feature            | Description                                                                 |
| ------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Bulk Buy           | Sets the total amount you want to allocate across outcomes.                 |
| Max. (Bulk Buy)    | Uses your entire available balance for the entry.                           |
| Find Best Outcomes | Applies statistical models to suggest favorable outcomes on crypto markets. |
| Remove Outcome     | Removes an outcome from your current setup.                                 |
| Add Outcome        | Adds an outcome to your structured entry.                                   |
| Chance to Win      | Shows the estimated probability of a positive result.                       |
| Profit Range       | Displays the potential profit range for the current setup.                  |
| Place Order        | Submits all orders based on your configuration.                             |

## How Polystrat Works

Instead of committing everything to one side, Polystrat structures your entry across multiple outcomes, reducing dependency on a single result. On crypto markets, [Statistical Models](https://polystrat.mintlify.app/features/model) are applied to suggest the most likely outcomes and guide smarter positioning.

<Steps>
  <Step title="Find your market">
    Go to [Polymarket ](https://polymarket.com/)and open any prediction market.\
    Once the page loads, Polystrat’s modal will appear in the top-right corner.

    <img alt="Othermarkets Pn" />

    <Info>
      Can’t see it? Make sure the extension is installed and you’ve completed the [Quickstart](https://polystrat.mintlify.app/quickstart) setup.
    </Info>
  </Step>

  <Step title="Set your total buy amount">
    Enter the total amount you want to allocate in the `“Bulk buy”` field.\
    Polystrat will handle the distribution automatically.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Adding outcomes">
    Click `“+ Add outcome”` in the top-right of the modal, or use the `“+”` icon next to an outcome’s probability.

    <img alt="Markets3 Pn" title="Markets3 Pn" />

    <Check>
      Add as many outcomes as needed to increase coverage and improve your odds.
    </Check>

    When trading BTC/ETH markets, you can use `"Find best outcomes"` to get model-based outcome suggestions.

    <img alt="download.png" title="download.png" />
  </Step>

  <Step title="Review your allocation">
    Review how your capital is distributed, including probabilities and exposure per outcome, before committing.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Place orders">
    Click `“Place orders”` to confirm your entry.\
    Polystrat will submit all orders on Polymarket and execute the split automatically across the selected outcomes.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Monitor your position">
    Click `“Manage positions”` to track how each outcome evolves as the market moves.\
    You can quickly see where you’re winning, losing, or balanced.
  </Step>
</Steps>


# Statistical Model
Source: https://docs.polystr.at/features/model

Quantitative modeling to estimate outcome likelihood.

Polystrat analyzes crypto price targets using multiple statistical approaches and historical behavior to generate model-based probabilities. These probabilities are designed to support better decisions, giving you a clearer sense of risk before you commit capital.

# Probability Engine Overview

This endpoint estimates the likelihood of a crypto asset (e.g. BTC) reaching a given price level within a defined time horizon.

It is designed for probabilistic decision support, not deterministic prediction.

<Info>
  The engine aggregates multiple independent probabilistic perspectives into a single bounded estimate, with explicit confidence signals.
</Info>

## High-level Architecture

The system follows an ensemble-based approach. Instead of relying on a single statistical assumption, it combines several complementary probability engines, each modeling a different market behavior.

The final probability reflects both the estimate itself and the degree of agreement between models.

## Volatility Regime Detection

Before aggregation, the engine classifies the current market into a volatility regime.

| Regime | Description                     | Effect                                |
| :----- | :------------------------------ | :------------------------------------ |
| Low    | Compressed volatility           | Tighter estimates, higher confidence  |
| Normal | Typical market conditions       | Standard behavior                     |
| High   | Elevated or stressed volatility | Wider uncertainty, confidence penalty |

<Warning>
  High volatility regimes explicitly reduce confidence, even when raw probabilities appear attractive.
</Warning>

## Ensemble Aggregation

All model outputs are combined into a single probability estimate.

Core principles:

* No single model dominates across all regimes
* Model disagreement increases uncertainty
* Model alignment tightens confidence intervals

The aggregation step produces both a probability and a model-consensus signal.

## Contextual Adjustments

After aggregation, the estimate is adjusted using market context signals.

These adjustments account for:

* Market positioning and sentiment imbalance
* Distance between spot price and target
* Time remaining to expiry

<Note>
  Adjustments are intentionally conservative and designed to dampen crowd-driven overconfidence.
</Note>

## Probability Bounding

The engine never outputs absolute certainty.

Probability bounds are applied based on:

* Target distance (moneyness)
* Time horizon
* Detected volatility regime

This ensures outputs remain probabilistic rather than declarative.

## Output Structure

<ResponseField name="probability" type="Final bounded probability estimate (0–1)">
  Represents the final adjusted probability after ensemble aggregation, contextual adjustments, and bounding.
</ResponseField>

<ResponseField name="confidence_interval" type="Lower and upper bounds derived from model dispersion">
  Indicates the uncertainty range implied by disagreement between internal models.
</ResponseField>

<ResponseField name="confidence_score" type="Model agreement score indicating estimate reliability">
  Measures how closely aligned the internal models are with each other. This reflects consensus, not predictive certainty.
</ResponseField>

<ResponseField name="model_breakdown" type="Abstracted per-model contribution summary">
  Provides a high-level summary of how different probabilistic engines contributed to the final estimate, without exposing internal mechanics.
</ResponseField>

<ResponseField name="recommendation" type="Human-readable probability classification">
  A categorical label derived from the probability range, intended for fast scanning and UI display.
</ResponseField>

## Intended Use

This system is optimized for:

* Scenario comparison
* Risk-weighted decision making
* Probabilistic hedging logic

<Danger>
  This engine is not a price oracle, trading signal, or guarantee of outcome.
</Danger>


# Introduction
Source: https://docs.polystr.at/index

Welcome to Polystrat, a hedge tool for people who hate losing.

Polystrat helps you increase your chances of winning on prediction markets by structuring entries across multiple outcomes. Instead of committing to a single result, you spread exposure, improve coverage, and play probabilities — not guesses.

<img alt="Coverps Pn" />

## Setting up

No complex configuration, no learning curve. Connect, choose your market, and hedge.

<Card title="Start here" icon="rocket" href="/quickstart">
  Follow our three step quickstart guide.
</Card>

## Features

Explore the core tools that power Polystrat and help you make more controlled decisions.

<Columns>
  <Card title="Hedge any market" icon="money-bills-simple" href="/features/hedge">
    We optimize your entry by hedging across outcomes.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Statistical Model" icon="bitcoin-sign" href="/features/model/">
    Quantitative modeling to estimate outcome likelihood.
  </Card>
</Columns>


# Fees
Source: https://docs.polystr.at/polystrat/fees



**Polymarket does not charge any type of fee.** There are no fees to deposit or withdraw USDC, although intermediaries such as Coinbase, MoonPay, etc may charge transaction fees. There are no fees to trade shares in any market.

**Polystrat charges ≤1% per order placed.** This fee supports the development of better quantitative strategies and helps incentivize adoption through our [referral program](https://docs.polystr.at/polystrat/referral).

## User Incentives

The more volume you generate, the lower your fee. This is designed to attract and reward high-frequency traders on Polystrat.

|                         |    |       |       |       |       |       |       |
| ----------------------- | -- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- |
| **Tier**                | 1  | 2     | 3     | 4     | 5     | 6     | 7     |
| **Net Fee**             | 1% | 0.95% | 0.87% | 0.85% | 0.80% | 0.77% | 0.75% |
| **Total Traded Volume** | 0  | \~    | \~    | \~    | \~    | \~    | \~    |


# Referral Program
Source: https://docs.polystr.at/polystrat/referral

Earn passive income every time your referrals trade on Polystrat

## Revenue Share Breakdown

Polystrat has a 3-level referral program. You earn a percentage of Polystrat’s net trading fee from users referred by you and by your network.

## Referral Levels and Commissions

### **Level 1 — Direct referrals**

**30% commission**

Users who sign up using your referral link.\
You earn 30% of Polystrat’s net fee on every trade they make.

Example

1. Your referral trades \$10,000 in one day.
2. Polystrat fee (1%): \$100
3. Your earnings (30%): \$30

### Level 2 — Referrals of your referrals

**3% commission**

Users who sign up using a Level 1 referral’s link.\
You earn 3% of Polystrat’s net fee on every trade they make.

Example

1. A Level 2 user trades \$10,000.
2. Polystrat fee: \$100
3. Your earnings (3%): \$3
4. Level 1 referral earns: \$30

### Level 3 — Referrals of Level 2

**2% commission**

Users who sign up using a Level 2 referral’s link.\
You earn 2% of Polystrat’s net fee on every trade they make.

Example

1. A Level 3 user trades \$10,000.
2. Polystrat fee: \$100
3. Your earnings (2%): \$2
4. Level 2 referral earns: \$30
5. Level 1 referral earns: \$3

## Fee and Payout Rules

Commissions are calculated from Polystrat’s net fee.\
The base fee is 1% and may change due to discounts or promotions.

<Check>
  There is no cap on referrals or earnings. More users and more volume means higher payouts.
</Check>


# Quickstart
Source: https://docs.polystr.at/quickstart

Start hedging Polymarket in minutes

## Get started in three steps

From install to your first hedge in just a few clicks.

<Steps>
  <Step title="Get access">
    <AccordionGroup>
      <Accordion title="Get the extension" icon="download">
        Install the Polystrat extension and connect it to Polymarket.

        <Card title="Chrome Web  Store" icon="download" href="https://chromewebstore.google.com/detail/polystrat/bljdmoemdghfaikkjabeajhmplgkddgn?hl=en-US" />
      </Accordion>

      <Accordion title="Apply your invite code" icon="user-check">
        Unlock access and activate all features with your invite code.

        <Note>
          Don't have one? [Apply for early access](https://www.polystr.at/).
        </Note>
      </Accordion>

      <Accordion title="Connect your Polymarket's Magic Wallet" icon="plug">
        Go to [polymarket.com/settings](https://polymarket.com/settings)\
        Click “Export Private Key”\
        Paste it into the extension to authorize Polystrat

        <Warning>
          **We’re temporarily supporting Magic Wallet only.**\
          If your Polymarket account was created using an external wallet, Magic keys can’t be exported. In that case, please [create a new Polymarket account](https://polymarket.com/) using email to continue.
        </Warning>
      </Accordion>
    </AccordionGroup>
  </Step>

  <Step title="Place your first hedge">
    <AccordionGroup>
      <Accordion title="BTC/ETH markets" icon="bitcoin-sign">
        Use Polystrat’s statistical model to structure hedged entries on crypto markets.
      </Accordion>

      <Accordion title="Other markets" icon="money-bill-wave">
        Split your entry across multiple outcomes to improve coverage and winning chances.
      </Accordion>
    </AccordionGroup>
  </Step>

  <Step title="Invite and earn">
    <Accordion title="Set your referral code" icon="share">
      Invite others to Polystrat and [earn from their activity.](https://docs.polystr.at/polystrat/referral)
    </Accordion>
  </Step>
</Steps>